5 Ways That Simple Math Can Improve Your Poker Game
Math is an essential element of a winning poker strategy that many players overlook. While taking the time to learn some of the key odds, probabilities and expectations is straightforward for the majority of people – and will allow you to spot and exploit many more profitable situations. This article looks at 5 ways in which simple poker math can improve your returns – without baffling you with complex equations.
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Poker Math #1 – Outs
An 'Out' is a card which is still to be dealt which can improve your hand – the most common example is when you require a fifth card of one suit to complete a flush. On the flop in Texas Holdem you have seen 5 cards – 3 on the board and 2 in your hand, leaving 47 cards unseen. You know if 4 of the 'known' cards are spades (for example) then there are 9 spades remaining among those 47 unseen cards. Calculating your outs as a proportion of the unseen cards will give you a probability of your hand improving, knowledge which you can factor into your betting and raising.
Poker Math #2 – Pot-Odds
Pot Odds are the basis of many betting decisions in poker, and understanding this concept will help you make profitable plays over time. Each time you bet or call you give or receive odds to your opponents. For example, if there is $100 in the pot and it costs you $50 to call then the pot-odds of your call are 2-to-1. The key to good poker strategy is to remain on the right side of the odds as often as possible. If you believe your winning chances in the above example are better than 2-to-1 then your call is profitable, if they are worse then you will lose money over time, regardless of the outcome of any single hand.
Poker Math #3 – Expected Value
Expected Value, often written as 'EV' describes the outcome in terms of dollars (or chips in poker tournaments) for betting decisions you make while playing over the long run. Using information on odds, outs and the tendencies of opponents you will make many decisions in the course of a hand. While a 'mistake' (for example taking 2-to-1 odds on a bet while you have a 4-to-1 probability of winning) may win you money in the short-run, over 100's of similar situations you will lose. By definition long-term winning poker players look for situations where they have a positive expected value.
Poker Math #4 – Implied Odds
When there is more betting to come in a poker hand the pot-odds you are receiving are sometimes larger than they appear. This is because there is usually a chance to win more bets after you complete your hand. For example if you make a straight on the turn there is a good chance that an opponent with a pair of aces will pay you one or two more bets and raises. These extra bets are known as your 'implied odds' and can swing your decision in many marginal situations. Be aware that tight opponents do not offer the same prospect for extra bets as loose ones.
Poker Math #5 – Bankroll Management
Winning poker players ensure that they never play with too large a proportion of their total bankroll at any one time. This is because it is easy for the chance turn of a card to send a big pot that you should have won to your opponent. Many new players fail to grasp how important bankroll management is to long-term success and lose their entire poker stake. Recommended guidelines are 20 buy-ins for poker cash games and 50 times your average tournament stake – these guidelines ensure that the natural swings of the game do not cause you to go broke.
